Creatinine fluctuations forecast cross-harvest kidney function decline among sugarcane workers in Guatemala.

Details

• Personal Author:
  Butler-Dawson J ; Dally M ; Jaramillo D ; Johnson RJ ; Krisher L ; Newman KL ; Newman, Lee S.
• Description:
  Background: Chronic kidney disease of unknown origin (CKDu) is an epidemic that disproportionately affects young agriculture workers in hot regions. It has been hypothesized that repeated acute kidney injury (AKI) may play a role in the development of disease. Methods: Latent class mixed models were used to identify groups of Guatemalan sugarcane harvesters based on their daily changes in creatinine over 6 consecutive days in 2018. Exponential smoothing state space models were used to forecast end-of-season creatinine between the identified groups. Percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) across the harvest was compared between groups. Results: Twenty-nine percent (n = 30) of the 103 workers experienced repeated severe fluctuations in creatinine across shift. The model with multiplicative error, multiplicative trend, and multiplicative seasonality was able to accurately forecast end-of-season creatinine in the severe group (mean percentage error [MPE]: -4.7%). eGFR of workers in the severe group on average decreased 20% across season compared to 11% decline for those in the moderate group (95% confidence interval for difference: -17% to 0%). Conclusions: Daily fluctuations in creatinine can be used to forecast end-of-season creatinine in sugarcane harvesters. Workers who experience repeat severe daily fluctuations in creatinine, on average, experience a greater reduction in kidney function across the season. [Description provided by NIOSH]
• Subjects:
  Agriculture Farmers Hot Temperature Occupational Health Safety
• Keywords:
  Author Keywords: Agricultural Workers; AKI; Chronic Kidney Disease Of Unknown Origin; Forecasting; Kidney Function Decline; Occupational Health Kidney Disorders; Kidney Function; Outdoor Workers; Agricultural Workers; Agriculture; Hot Environments; Farm Workers; Seasonal Factors;
• ISSN:
  2468-0249
• Document Type:
  Text
• Funding:
  Cooperative Agreement
• Genre:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  Colorado ; OSHA Region 10 ; OSHA Region 8 ; Washington
• CIO:
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)
• Topic:
  Workplace Safety & Health
• Location:
  North America
• Volume:
  5
• Issue:
  9
• NIOSHTIC Number:
  nn:20065767
• Citation:
  Kidney Int Rep 2020 Sep; 5(9):1558-1566
• Contact Point Address:
  Miranda Dally, Center for Health, Work & Environment, Colorado School of Public Health, CU Anschutz Medical Campus, 13001 E. 17th Place, Aurora, Colorado 80045, USA
• Email:
  miranda.dally@cuanschutz.edu
• CAS Registry Number:
  Creatinine (CAS RN 60-27-5)
• Federal Fiscal Year:
  2020
• NORA Priority Area:
  Manufacturing ; Services
• Performing Organization:
  University of Colorado Denver, Aurora
• Peer Reviewed:
  True
• Start Date:
  20160901
• Source Full Name:
  Kidney International Reports
• End Date:
  20260831
• Collection(s):
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:8b16eb7200dbb376da5db31352fe261ba93d1c49417d933e8e56765216282e2315940b6f250832d4ee05d259a492f07d7bca764538bfab3ca17a7aacff6b5060
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/248828/cdc_248828_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 977.67 KB ]