Details:

Alternative Title:
Emerg Infect Dis
Publisher's site:
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1709.102012
Personal Author:
Baker, Philip R.A. ; Sun, Jiandong ; Morris, James ; Dines, Amanda
Baker, Philip R.A. ; Sun, Jiandong ; Morris, James ; Dines, Amanda Less -
Description:
At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model's predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model's usefulness. Predictions based on modified assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals. Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency.
Subjects:
[+]
Computer Simulation Cross-Sectional Studies Follow-Up Studies Hospitalization Humans Influenza, Human Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype Models, Statistical Online Systems Pandemics Software
Source:
Emerg Infect Dis. 17(9):1608-1614.
Document Type:
Journal Article
Place as Subject:
Queensland, Australia
Collection(s):
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:efd53f8bb9f8dbe644a044c0d54055e905727faf791d5701b75fa1801c7d568d
Download URL:
https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/23686/cdc_23686_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Supporting Files

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  	10-2012-F1.jpg	jpeg
  	10-2012-F2.gif	gif
  	10-2012-F2.jpg	jpeg
  	10-2012_finalR.nxml	txt
  	license.txt	txt

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