Epidemiologic Modeling with FluSurge for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, Queensland, Australia

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Emerg Infect Dis
• Personal Author:
  Baker, Philip R.A. ; Sun, Jiandong ; Morris, James ; Dines, Amanda
• Description:
  At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital-based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifications to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model's predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model's usefulness. Predictions based on modified assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals. Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency.
• Subjects:
  Computer Simulation Cross-Sectional Studies Follow-Up Studies Hospitalization Humans Influenza, Human Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype Models, Statistical Online Systems Pandemics Software

  More +
• Source:
  Emerg Infect Dis. 17(9):1608-1614.
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  Queensland, Australia
• Volume:
  17
• Issue:
  9
• Collection(s):
  Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:efd53f8bb9f8dbe644a044c0d54055e905727faf791d5701b75fa1801c7d568d
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/23686/cdc_23686_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 298.36 KB ]