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Modeling Insights into Haemophilus influenzae Type b Disease, Transmission, and Vaccine Programs
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Jan 2012
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Source: Emerg Infect Dis 18(1):13-20
[PDF-443.75 KB]
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Alternative Title:Emerg Infect Dis
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Description:In response to the 2007-2009 Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine shortage in the United States, we developed a flexible model of Hib transmission and disease for optimizing Hib vaccine programs in diverse populations and situations The model classifies population members by age, colonization/disease status, and antibody levels, with movement across categories defined by differential equations We implemented the model for the United States as a whole, England and Wales, and the Alaska Native population This model accurately simulated Hib incidence in all 3 populations, including the increased incidence in England/Wales beginning in 1999 and the change in Hib incidence in Alaska Natives after switching Hib vaccines in 1996 The model suggests that a vaccine shortage requiring deferral of the booster dose could last 3 years in the United States before loss of herd immunity would result in increasing rates of invasive Hib disease in children <5 years of age
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