Modeling Insights into Haemophilus influenzae Type b Disease, Transmission, and Vaccine Programs

Jackson, Michael L.; Rose, Charles E.; Cohn, Amanda; Coronado, Fatima; Clark, Thomas A.; Wenger, Jay D.; Bulkow, Lisa; Bruce, Michael G.; Messonnier, Nancy E.; Hennessy, Thomas W.

doi:10.3201/eid1801.110336

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Modeling Insights into Haemophilus influenzae Type b Disease, Transmission, and Vaccine Programs

Published Date:

Jan 2012

Publisher's site:

http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1801.110336 New Site Icon

Source:

Emerg Infect Dis. 18(1):13-20.

[PDF - 443.75 KB]

Details:

Personal Authors:

Jackson, Michael L. ; Rose, Charles E. ; Cohn, Amanda ; Coronado, Fatima ; Clark, Thomas A. ; ... More ▼

Keywords:

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Description:

In response to the 2007-2009 Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine shortage in the United States, we developed a flexible model of Hib transmission and disease for optimizing Hib vaccine programs in diverse populations and situations. The model classifies population members by age, colonization/disease status, and antibody levels, with movement across categories defined by differential equations. We implemented the model for the United States as a whole, England and Wales, and the Alaska Native population. This model accurately simulated Hib incidence in all 3 populations, including the increased incidence in England/Wales beginning in 1999 and the change in Hib incidence in Alaska Natives after switching Hib vaccines in 1996. The model suggests that a vaccine shortage requiring deferral of the booster dose could last 3 years in the United States before loss of herd immunity would result in increasing rates of invasive Hib disease in children <5 years of age.

Document Type:

Journal Article

Collection(s):

Emerging Infectious Diseases
Arctic Investigations Program

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