Details:

Alternative Title:
Diabetes Care
Personal Author:
Imperatore, Giuseppina ; Boyle, James P. ; Thompson, Theodore J. ; Case, Doug ; Dabelea, Dana ; ... More +
Imperatore, Giuseppina ; Boyle, James P. ; Thompson, Theodore J. ; Case, Doug ; Dabelea, Dana ; Hamman, Richard F. ; Lawrence, Jean M. ; Liese, Angela D. ; Liu, Lenna L. ; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth J. ; Rodriguez, Beatriz L. ; Standiford, Debra Less -
Corporate Authors:
for the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study Group
Description:
OBJECTIVE

To forecast the number of U.S. individuals aged <20 years with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes incidence.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used Markov modeling framework to generate yearly forecasts of the number of individuals in each of three states (diabetes, no diabetes, and death). We used 2001 prevalence and 2002 incidence of T1DM and T2DM from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study and U.S. Census Bureau population demographic projections. Two scenarios were considered for T1DM and T2DM incidence: 1) constant incidence over time; 2) for T1DM yearly percentage increases of 3.5, 2.2, 1.8, and 2.1% by age-groups 0–4 years, 5–9 years, 10–14 years, and 15–19 years, respectively, and for T2DM a yearly 2.3% increase across all ages.

RESULTS

Under scenario 1, the projected number of youth with T1DM rises from 166,018 to 203,382 and with T2DM from 20,203 to 30,111, respectively, in 2010 and 2050. Under scenario 2, the number of youth with T1DM nearly triples from 179,388 in 2010 to 587,488 in 2050 (prevalence 2.13/1,000 and 5.20/1,000 [+144% increase]), with the greatest increase in youth of minority racial/ethnic groups. The number of youth with T2DM almost quadruples from 22,820 in 2010 to 84,131 in 2050; prevalence increases from 0.27/1,000 to 0.75/1,000 (+178% increase).

CONCLUSIONS

A linear increase in diabetes incidence could result in a substantial increase in the number of youth with T1DM and T2DM over the next 40 years, especially those of minority race/ethnicity.


Subjects:
[+]
Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 And Over Child Child, Preschool Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 Female Humans Incidence Infant Infant, Newborn Male Middle Aged Population Growth Young Adult
Source:
Diabetes Care. 2012; 35(12):2515-2520.
Pubmed ID:
23173134
Pubmed Central ID:
PMC3507562
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
DP-05-069/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHS/United States ; DP-10-001/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHS/United States ; PA 00097/PHS HHS/United States
DP-05-069/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHS/United States ; DP-10-001/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHS/United States ; PA 00097/PHS HHS/United States Less -
Place as Subject:
United States
Collection(s):
CDC Public Access
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:37bf8c0e857b4d6d24a4db4f5c184141224bc398fbe7f788a74acb49e5daf4e3
Download URL:
https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/21375/cdc_21375_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Supporting Files

• 	license.txt	txt
  	supp_35_12_2515_v2_index.html	htm
  	supp_35_12_2515_v3_index.html	htm
  	supp_35_12_2515__index.html	htm
  	supp_dc12-0669v120669_DC120669SupplementaryData.pdf	pdf
  	supp_dc12-0669_News_Release.pdf	pdf
  	2515.nxml	txt
  	2515fig1.gif	gif
  	2515fig1.jpg	jpeg
  	2515tbl1.gif	gif
  	2515tbl1.jpg	jpeg
  	2515tbl2.gif	gif
  	2515tbl2.jpg	jpeg

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