Bias-Adjusted Predictions of County-Level Vaccination Coverage from the COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Med Decis Making
• Personal Author:
  Reitsma, Marissa B. ; Rose, Sherri ; Reinhart, Alex ; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D. ; Salomon, Joshua A.
• Description:
  Background. ; The potential for selection bias in nonrepresentative, large-scale, low-cost survey data can limit their utility for population health measurement and public health decision making. We developed an approach to bias adjust county-level COVID-19 vaccination coverage predictions from the large-scale US COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey. ; Design. ; We developed a multistep regression framework to adjust for selection bias in predicted county-level vaccination coverage plateaus. Our approach included poststratification to the American Community Survey, adjusting for differences in observed covariates, and secondary normalization to an unbiased reference indicator. As a case study, we prospectively applied this framework to predict county-level long-run vaccination coverage among children ages 5 to 11 y. We evaluated our approach against an interim observed measure of 3-mo coverage for children ages 5 to 11 y and used long-term coverage estimates to monitor equity in the pace of vaccination scale up. ; Results. ; Our predictions suggested a low ceiling on long-term national vaccination coverage (46%), detected substantial geographic heterogeneity (ranging from 11% to 91% across counties in the United States), and highlighted widespread disparities in the pace of scale up in the 3 mo following Emergency Use Authorization of COVID-19 vaccination for 5- to 11-y-olds. ; Limitations. ; We relied on historical relationships between vaccination hesitancy and observed coverage, which may not capture rapid changes in the COVID-19 policy and epidemiologic landscape. ; Conclusions. ; Our analysis demonstrates an approach to leverage differing strengths of multiple sources of information to produce estimates on the time scale and geographic scale necessary for proactive decision making. ; Implications. ; Designing integrated health measurement systems that combine sources with different advantages across the spectrum of timeliness, spatial resolution, and representativeness can maximize the benefits of data collection relative to costs.
  More +
• Subjects:
  • Child
  • Humans
  • United States
  • Vaccination Coverage
  • COVID-19 Vaccines
  • Pandemics
  • COVID-19
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Vaccination
• Keywords:
  • COVID-19 vaccination
  • online survey data
  • population health measurement
  • heterogeneity
  • Alzheimer's disease
  • Alzheimer's disease sequencing project
  • antiviral agents
  • herpes simplex
  • human papillomavirus
  • torque teno viruses
  More +
• Source:
  Med Decis Making. 44(2):175-188
• Pubmed ID:
  38159263
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC10865746
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  NU38OT000297/CC/CDC HHSUnited States/ ; R37 DA015612/DA/NIDA NIH HHSUnited States/ ; UL1 TR003142/TR/NCATS NIH HHSUnited States/ ; DGE-1656518/National Science Foundation/
• Volume:
  44
• Issue:
  2
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/154698/cdc_154698_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.63 MB]
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:fd5cfdf59f7e6ae41e904a7a5f73406dd487c92fd1927dfd7c0d5fb68e93af78a0970eb3e5571b6bce806f6458cf9635c6ac8ac4b811922fb0de4e7cefbc1e20