Breast and Colorectal Cancer Recurrence-Free Survival Estimates in the US: Modeling versus Active Data Collection

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Cancer Epidemiol
• Personal Author:
  Mariotto, Angela B. ; Thompson, Trevor D. ; Johnson, Chris ; Wu, Xiao-Cheng ; Pollack, Lori A.
• Description:
  Background:
  
  A modeling method was developed to estimate recurrence-free survival using cancer registry survival data. This study aims to validate the modeled recurrence-free survival against “gold-standard” estimates from data collected by the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) Patient-Centered Outcomes Research (PCOR) project.
  
  Methods:
  
  We compared 5-year metastatic recurrence-free survival using modeling and empirical estimates from the PCOR project that collected disease-free status, tumor progression and recurrence for colorectal and female breast cancer cases diagnosed in 2011 in 5 U.S state registries. To estimate empirical recurrence-free survival, we developed an algorithm that combined disease-free, recurrence, progression, and date information from NPCR-PCOR data. We applied the modeling method to relative survival for patients diagnosed with female breast and colorectal cancer in 2000–2015 in the SEER-18 areas.
  
  Results:
  
  When grouping patients with stages I-III, the 5-year metastatic recurrence-free modeled and NPCR-PCOR estimates are very similar being respectively, 90.2% and 88.6% for female breast cancer, 74.6% and 75.3% for colon cancer, and 68.8% and 68.5% for rectum cancer. In general, the 5-year recurrence-free NPCR-PCOR and modeled estimates are still similar when controlling by stage. The modeled estimates, however, are not as accurate for recurrence-free survival in years 1 to 3 from diagnosis.
  
  Conclusions:
  
  The alignment between NPCR-PCOR and modeled estimates supports their validity and provides robust population-based estimates of 5-year metastatic recurrence-free survival for female breast, colon, and rectum cancers. The modeling approach can in principle be extended to other cancer sites to provide provisional population-based estimates of 5-year recurrence free survival.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Breast Neoplasms Colonic Neoplasms Female Humans Rectal Neoplasms Registries SEER Program
• Keywords:
  Breast Cancer Cancer Registry Data Colorectal Cancer Metastasis Recurrence Survival Methods
• Source:
  Cancer Epidemiol. 85:102370
• Pubmed ID:
  37148828
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC10956542
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  U58 DP000792/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHSUnited States/ ; Z99 CA999999/ImNIH/Intramural NIH HHSUnited States/ ; NU58DP006320/CC/CDC HHSUnited States/
• Volume:
  85
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:bda05f7631cef0680fd29182eb2e7053b64cbda7dcf2ea1b0975eecdd8d8e8bce36356d85231438535cb4e2a44b28a1dcdb6d7108ea116853d3dd7d426f3c3b1
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/153469/cdc_153469_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.34 MB ]