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Breast and Colorectal Cancer Recurrence-Free Survival Estimates in the US: Modeling versus Active Data Collection
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8 2023
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Source: Cancer Epidemiol. 85:102370
Details:
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Alternative Title:Cancer Epidemiol
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Personal Author:
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Description:Background:
A modeling method was developed to estimate recurrence-free survival using cancer registry survival data. This study aims to validate the modeled recurrence-free survival against “gold-standard” estimates from data collected by the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) Patient-Centered Outcomes Research (PCOR) project.
Methods:
We compared 5-year metastatic recurrence-free survival using modeling and empirical estimates from the PCOR project that collected disease-free status, tumor progression and recurrence for colorectal and female breast cancer cases diagnosed in 2011 in 5 U.S state registries. To estimate empirical recurrence-free survival, we developed an algorithm that combined disease-free, recurrence, progression, and date information from NPCR-PCOR data. We applied the modeling method to relative survival for patients diagnosed with female breast and colorectal cancer in 2000–2015 in the SEER-18 areas.
Results:
When grouping patients with stages I-III, the 5-year metastatic recurrence-free modeled and NPCR-PCOR estimates are very similar being respectively, 90.2% and 88.6% for female breast cancer, 74.6% and 75.3% for colon cancer, and 68.8% and 68.5% for rectum cancer. In general, the 5-year recurrence-free NPCR-PCOR and modeled estimates are still similar when controlling by stage. The modeled estimates, however, are not as accurate for recurrence-free survival in years 1 to 3 from diagnosis.
Conclusions:
The alignment between NPCR-PCOR and modeled estimates supports their validity and provides robust population-based estimates of 5-year metastatic recurrence-free survival for female breast, colon, and rectum cancers. The modeling approach can in principle be extended to other cancer sites to provide provisional population-based estimates of 5-year recurrence free survival.
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Pubmed ID:37148828
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC10956542
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Funding:
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Volume:85
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