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Forecasts of flu hospital admissions
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March 1, 2024
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Alternative Title:Forecasts of flu hospitalizations
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Description:Updated March 1, 2024
Reported and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions as of February 28, 2024.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospital Admissions
• This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions will likely decrease nationally, with 3,500 to 14,000 laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending March 16, 2024.
• This week, 25 modeling groups contributed 29 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
• This week’s influenza forecasts should be interpreted with caution due to potential reporting delays caused by a CDC National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) system upgrade that took place between February 23rd and February 27th, 2024.
• Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
• The figure shows the number of new laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through February 24 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks, through March 16. Hospitals are required to report daily laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN).
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