Seasonal Forecast of St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Transmission, Florida
Published Date:May 2004
Source:Emerg Infect Dis. 10(5):802-809.
Encephalitis, St. Louis
Encephalitis Virus, St. Louis
St. Louis Encephalitis
Description:Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empiric relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill-verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empiric disease forecast model.
application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf image/gif image/jpeg image/gif image/jpeg image/gif image/jpeg image/gif image/jpeg image/gif image/jpeg image/gif image/jpeg image/jpeg image/jpeg image/jpeg image/jpeg image/jpeg text/plain text/plain
You May Also Like: