Details:

Alternative Title:
Emerg Infect Dis
Publisher's site:
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1005.030246
Personal Author:
Shaman, Jeffrey ; Day, Jonathan F. ; Stieglitz, Marc ; Zebiak, Stephen ; Cane, Mark
Shaman, Jeffrey ; Day, Jonathan F. ; Stieglitz, Marc ; Zebiak, Stephen ; Cane, Mark Less -
Description:
Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empiric relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill-verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empiric disease forecast model.
Subject:
[+]
Animals
Chickens
Climate
Culex
Encephalitis, St. Louis
Encephalitis Virus, St. Louis
Female
Forecasting
Humans
Models, Biological
Poultry Diseases
Seasons
Sentinel Surveillance
Weather

Source:
Emerg Infect Dis. 10(5):802-809.
Document Type:
Journal Article
Place as Subject:
Florida
Collection(s):
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:2347ad99967404c45505b5c199bdb4c2ef5a69ddf300d70055ba78cf76b16887
File Type:

Supporting Files

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