Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan

Bellizzi, Saverio; Letchford, Nicholas; Adib, Keyrellous; Probert, William J.M.; Hancock, Penelope; Alsawalha, Lora; Santoro, Alessio; Profili, Maria C.; Aguas, Ricardo; Popescu, Christian; Al Ariqi, Lubna; White, Lisa; Hayajneh, Wail; Obeidat, Nathir; Nabeth, Pierre

doi:10.3201/eid2909.221493

i

Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan

Supporting Files Public Domain

9 2023
By Bellizzi, Saverio ; Letchford, Nicholas ; Adib, Keyrellous ; ...

File Language:

English

Details

Alternative Title:

Emerg Infect Dis
Personal Author:

Bellizzi, Saverio ; Letchford, Nicholas ; Adib, Keyrellous ; Probert, William J.M. ; Hancock, Penelope ; Alsawalha, Lora ; Santoro, Alessio ; Profili, Maria C. ; Aguas, Ricardo ; Popescu, Christian ; Al Ariqi, Lubna ; White, Lisa ; Hayajneh, Wail ; Obeidat, Nathir ; Nabeth, Pierre
Description:

We engaged in a participatory modeling approach with health sector stakeholders in Jordan to support government decision-making regarding implementing public health measures to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden. We considered the effect of 4 physical distancing strategies on reducing COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Jordan during March 2020-January 2021: no physical distancing; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed once a week; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed twice a week; and a permanent physical distancing intervention. Modeling showed that the fourth strategy would be most effective in reducing cases and deaths; however, this approach was only marginally beneficial to reducing COVID-19 disease compared with an intermittently enforced physical distancing intervention. Scenario-based model influenced policy-making and the evolution of the pandemic in Jordan confirmed the forecasting provided by the modeling exercise and helped confirm the effectiveness of the policy adopted by the government of Jordan.
Subjects:

Cost Of Illness COVID-19 Exercise Government Humans
Keywords:

Coronavirus Disease Curfew Decision-making Jordan Modeling Respiratory Infections SARS-CoV-2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Vaccine-preventable Diseases Viruses Zoonoses
Source:

Emerg Infect Dis. 2023; 29(9):1738-1746
Pubmed ID:

37610124
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC10461658
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Jordan
Volume:

29
Issue:

9
Collection(s):

Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:02a262d2aefaa5492db774bc845f30c2b5b12a61a75eadda159ff8fabb9e7669
Download URL:

https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/133560/cdc_133560_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.55 MB ]

File Language:

English

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