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Projecting climate-related disease burden : a case study on methods for projecting respiratory health impacts
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July 28, 2017
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[PDF-3.17 MB]
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Description:This document is a follow up to the “Projecting Climate-Related Disease Burden” technical report that was developed by the Climate and Health Program at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Using case studies (completed and in development) from Climate Ready States and Cities Initiative (CRSCI) grantees utilizing the Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework, these guidance documents are examples of specific methodology health departments can utilize to project climate-related disease burden.
The example in this document provides one approach to estimate the excess current and future public health burden related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS). A data set with daily observations for NYS from 1991–2004 is used as the baseline; disease burden is projected for the years 2046–2065 (midcentury) and 2080–2099 (end of century). These dates were chosen based on available climate projections and a time frame in which changes in disease burden would be evident (see sections 4.1 and 4.2). The methodology in this example is similar to that in a paper published in Environmental Health Perspectives, but uses updated climate projections. The document is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the required data sets and their organization and linkage for the analysis; Section 3 describes the derivation of the exposure-outcome function (i.e., the estimation of the change in the number of adverse health effects in a given population for a given change in concentration for a given exposure); and Section 4 presents the approach for projecting the disease burden. Note that all data used here is for demonstration purposes only and not the actual data.
CS263538-A
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ProjectingDiseaseRespiratoryCaseStudy_508.pdf
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Pages in Document:24 numbered pages
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