Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020

Spreco, Armin; Jöud, Anna; Eriksson, Olle; Soltesz, Kristian; Källström, Reidar; Dahlström, Örjan; Eriksson, Henrik; Ekberg, Joakim; Jonson, Carl-Oscar; Fraenkel, Carl-Johan; Lundh, Torbjörn; Gerlee, Philip; Gustafsson, Fredrik; Timpka, Toomas

doi:10.3201/eid2803.210267

i

Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020

Supporting Files Public Domain

3 2022
By Spreco, Armin ; Jöud, Anna ; Eriksson, Olle
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2803.210267

File Language:

English

Details

Alternative Title:

Emerg Infect Dis
Personal Author:

Spreco, Armin ; Jöud, Anna ; Eriksson, Olle ; Soltesz, Kristian ; Källström, Reidar ; Dahlström, Örjan ; Eriksson, Henrik ; Ekberg, Joakim ; Jonson, Carl-Oscar ; Fraenkel, Carl-Johan ; Lundh, Torbjörn ; Gerlee, Philip ; Gustafsson, Fredrik ; Timpka, Toomas
Description:

We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.
Subjects:
Source:

Emerg Infect Dis. 2022; 28(3):564-571
Pubmed ID:

35201737
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC8888224
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

Sweden
Volume:

28
Issue:

3
Download URL:

https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/115198/cdc_115198_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.27 MB]
Collection(s):

Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:f72ae9a4f744de05b05247707f2d7895db6ba137aa5be74dcf80438b1b3462a6

File Language:

English

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