Recency-Weighted Statistical Modeling Approach to Attribute Illnesses Caused by 4 Pathogens to Food Sources Using Outbreak Data, United States

Batz, Michael B.; Richardson, LaTonia C.; Bazaco, Michael C.; Parker, Cary Chen; Chirtel, Stuart J.; Cole, Dana; Golden, Neal J.; Griffin, Patricia M.; Gu, Weidong; Schmitt, Susan K.; Wolpert, Beverly J.; Kufel, Joanna S. Zablotsky; Hoekstra, R. Michael

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Recency-Weighted Statistical Modeling Approach to Attribute Illnesses Caused by 4 Pathogens to Food Sources Using Outbreak Data, United States

Supporting Files Public Domain

Jan 2021
By Batz, Michael B. ; Richardson, LaTonia C. ; Bazaco, Michael C. ; ...

File Language:

English

Details

Alternative Title:

Emerg Infect Dis
Personal Author:

Batz, Michael B. ; Richardson, LaTonia C. ; Bazaco, Michael C. ; Parker, Cary Chen ; Chirtel, Stuart J. ; Cole, Dana ; Golden, Neal J. ; Griffin, Patricia M. ; Gu, Weidong ; Schmitt, Susan K. ; Wolpert, Beverly J. ; Kufel, Joanna S. Zablotsky ; Hoekstra, R. Michael
Description:

Foodborne illness source attribution is foundational to a risk-based food safety system. We describe a method for attributing US foodborne illnesses caused by nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Escherichia coli O157, Listeria monocytogenes, and Campylobacter to 17 food categories using statistical modeling of outbreak data. This method adjusts for epidemiologic factors associated with outbreak size, down-weights older outbreaks, and estimates credibility intervals. On the basis of 952 reported outbreaks and 32,802 illnesses during 1998-2012, we attribute 77% of foodborne Salmonella illnesses to 7 food categories (seeded vegetables, eggs, chicken, other produce, pork, beef, and fruits), 82% of E. coli O157 illnesses to beef and vegetable row crops, 81% of L. monocytogenes illnesses to fruits and dairy, and 74% of Campylobacter illnesses to dairy and chicken. However, because Campylobacter outbreaks probably overrepresent dairy as a source of nonoutbreak campylobacteriosis, we caution against using these Campylobacter attribution estimates without further adjustment.
Subjects:

Animals Campylobacter Infections Cattle Disease Outbreaks Foodborne Diseases Food Microbiology Gastroenteritis Listeria Monocytogenes
Source:

Emerg Infect Dis. 27(1):214-222
Pubmed ID:

33350919
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC7774545
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

United States
Location:

North America
Volume:

27
Issue:

1
Collection(s):

Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:b896950fe64a770ceeba1e7959e781c657782f8a6e71281a3e41fa44b0b52502
Download URL:

https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/100008/cdc_100008_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 910.89 KB ]

File Language:

English

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