Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of November 9, 2020.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

• This week CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 36 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecast. Of the 36 groups, 33 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and one forecasted new death only.

• This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next four weeks, with 5,500 to 13,400 new deaths likely to be reported in the week ending December 5, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 260,000 to 282,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

• The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 19 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

• In previous weeks, all submitted forecasts were displayed, even if they did not include sufficient information on forecast uncertainty to be included in the ensemble. Forecasts are included in the ensemble and displayed on this page when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub#ensemble-model

ed in the ensemble and displayed on this page when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub#ensemble-model