COVID-19 forecasts : deaths : updated Oct. 29, 2020
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COVID-19 forecasts : deaths : updated Oct. 29, 2020

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Details:

  • Corporate Authors:
    National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.
  • Description:
    Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of October 26, 2020.

    Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

    • This week CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 47 modeling groups. Of the 47 groups, 42 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, three groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only.

    • This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,900 to 10,000 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending November 21, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 243,000 to 256,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

    • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week may increase in two jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

  • Content Notes:
    National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Ensemble Forecast -- Forecast Assumptions.
  • Subjects:
  • Series:
    Coronavirus Disease 2020 (COVID-19)
  • Document Type:
    Webpage
  • Place as Subject:
    United States
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  • File Type:

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