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COVID-19 forecasts : deaths : updated Oct. 21, 2020
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Oct. 21, 2020
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Source: Coronavirus Disease 2020 (COVID-19)
[PDF-710.70 KB]
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Description:bserved and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of October 19, 2020.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
• This week CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 45 modeling groups. Of the 45 groups, 42 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and one forecasted new deaths only.
• This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,500 to 7,600 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending November 14, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 235,000 to 247,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
• The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week may increase in one jurisdiction, which is indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
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Content Notes:National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Ensemble Forecast -- Forecast Assumptions.
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