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Target-setting methods in Healthy People 2030
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    Introduction—Healthy People is an initiative of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that provides science-based, 10-year national objectives and targets for improving the health of all Americans. The fifth iteration of the initiative, Healthy People 2030 (HP2030), was released in August 2020. As in previous iterations, targets were set with the goal to be achieved by the end of the decade. HP2030 aims for continued transparency and scientific basis for how targets are selected and justified. To this end, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) developed statistical methods and analytical tools to assist in setting transparent, data-driven targets. Objective—This Statistical Note documents the statistical methods underlying the analytical tools that were developed by NCHS for HP2030 target setting based on percent or percentage point improvement and trend projection. Targets based on percent or percentage point improvement—In HP2030, targets reflecting a projected 10- or 20-percent improvement from baseline values are proposed for rates and quantities other than percentages. For percentages, NCHS developed an enhanced method for HP2030, based on a percentage point improvement derived from Cohen’s effect size h. When applicable, two effect size values are proposed, h = 0.1 and h = 0.2. Targets based on trend projection— When historical data are available, fitting a trend line using (weighted) least squares permits the calculation of a range of predictions for the value of an indicator at any future time point. From this range of predictions, users can select a target based on the objective’s desired direction (i.e., increase or decrease). Conclusion—HP2030 is the first decade in the Healthy People initiative in which analytical tools for setting targets have been developed by NCHS. These tools assist in setting transparent, data- driven targets, and the methodological underpinnings of these tools may be useful for other public health initiatives. Suggested citation: Hubbard K, Talih M, Klein RJ, Huang DT. Target- setting methods in Healthy People 2030. Healthy People Statistical Notes, no 28. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2020. CS319478 statnt28-508.pdf
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