Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Sci Adv
• Personal Author:
  Olson, Donald R. ; Lopman, Benjamin A. ; Konty, Kevin J. ; Mathes, Robert W. ; Papadouka, Vikki ; Ternier, Alexandra ; Zucker, Jane R. ; Simonsen, Lone ; Grenfell, Bryan T. ; Pitzer, Virginia E.
• Description:
  Prediction skill is a key test of models for epidemic dynamics. However, future validation of models against out-of-sample data is rare, partly because of a lack of timely surveillance data. We address this gap by analyzing the response of rotavirus dynamics to infant vaccination. Syndromic surveillance of emergency department visits for diarrhea in New York City reveals a marked decline in diarrheal incidence among infants and young children, in line with data on rotavirus-coded hospitalizations and laboratory-confirmed cases, and a shift from annual to biennial epidemics increasingly affecting older children and adults. A published mechanistic model qualitatively predicted these patterns more than 2 years in advance. Future efforts to increase vaccination coverage may disrupt these patterns and lead to further declines in the incidence of rotavirus-attributable gastroenteritis.
• Subjects:
  Child, Preschool Gastroenteritis Humans Incidence Infant Male Models, Biological Rotavirus Rotavirus Infections
• Source:
  Sci Adv. 2020; 6(9)
• Pubmed ID:
  32133392
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC7043922
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  P2C HD047879/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United States ; R01 AI112970/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States
• Place as Subject:
  New York City, NY
• Volume:
  6
• Issue:
  9
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:fb0c9b809a3231a8ddbb005a490e42b28f01a39568cc77bfd7cefb16e70b36ab
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/92639/cdc_92639_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.46 MB ]