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Estimated HIV incidence and prevalence in the United States 2010–2015
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March 2018
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Description:The primary national HIV prevention goal is to reduce the annual number of HIV infections [1]. A key objec- tive to reaching this goal is to increase the percentage of persons living with HIV who are aware of their infection [2]. Persons who are aware of their HIV infection can be linked to care and receive treatment to reduce morbidity and viral load levels, making them less likely to transmit the virus to others [3]. Estimates of (1) HIV incidence, (2) prevalence (per- sons living with diagnosed or undiagnosed HIV infec- tion), and (3) percentage of diagnosed infections (persons aware of their infection) are essential to determining whether prevention program efforts are reducing the annual number of HIV infections (inci- dence) and achieving prevention outcomes.
Incidence measures the number of infections during a specified time (e.g., year). These estimates can be used to assess changes in characteristics of persons most at risk for acquiring HIV infection. Diagnoses refer to persons who may have been infected years before diagnosis.
Prevalence refers to the number of persons living with HIV disease at a given time regardless of the time of infection or whether the person has received a diagnosis. Prevalence and the percentage of diag- nosed infections reflect the number of persons cur- rently in need of care and treatment services for HIV infection.
Previously, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) used data on diagnoses, stage of disease, and laboratory results of assays of infection recency to determine a consistent, accurate method for estimating incidence and prevalence—one that would allow for timely interpretation of HIV trends (national and jurisdictional) [4, 5]. Improvements in HIV surveillance that resulted in complete and readily available data for all states [6] now allow us to use the Song et al. method [7] (based on a CD4+ T- lymphocyte [CD4] depletion model [8–10]) to esti- mate HIV incidence and prevalence. This model (referred to hereafter as the “CD4 model”) uses first CD4 test results after HIV diagnosis, which are rou- tinely collected as part of the National HIV Surveil- lance System (NHSS) by all jurisdictions.
Data are presented for the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection among adults and adolescents (aged 13 years and older) reported to CDC through June 2017.
Suggested citation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Estimated HIV incidence and prevalence in the United States, 2010–2015. HIV Surveillance Supplemental Report 2018;23(No. 1). http://www.cdc.gov/ hiv/library/reports/hiv-surveillance.html. Published March 2018. Accessed [date].
cdc-hiv-surveillance-supplemental-report-vol-23-1.pdf
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