A Field-Validated Approach Using Surveillance and Genotyping Data to Estimate Tuberculosis Attributable to Recent Transmission in the United States

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Am J Epidemiol
• Personal Author:
  France, Anne Marie ; Grant, Juliana ; Kammerer, J. Steve ; Navin, Thomas R.
• Description:
  Tuberculosis genotyping data are frequently used to estimate the proportion of tuberculosis cases in a population that are attributable to recent transmission (RT). Multiple factors influence genotype-based estimates of RT and limit the comparison of estimates over time and across geographic units. Additionally, methods used for these estimates have not been validated against field-based epidemiologic assessments of RT. Here we describe a novel genotype-based approach to estimation of RT based on the identification of plausible-source cases, which facilitates systematic comparisons over time and across geographic areas. We compared this and other genotype-based RT estimation approaches with the gold standard of field-based assessment of RT based on epidemiologic investigation in Arkansas, Maryland, and Massachusetts during 1996-2000. We calculated the sensitivity and specificity of each approach for epidemiologic evidence of RT and calculated the accuracy of each approach across a range of hypothetical RT prevalence rates plausible for the United States. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of genotype-based RT estimates varied by approach. At an RT prevalence of 10%, accuracy ranged from 88.5% for state-based clustering to 94.4% with our novel approach. Our novel, field-validated approach allows for systematic assessments over time and across public health jurisdictions of varying geographic size, with an established level of accuracy.
• Subjects:
  Cluster Analysis Female Genotype Humans Male Population Surveillance Prevalence Sensitivity And Specificity Tuberculosis
• Source:
  Am J Epidemiol. 182(9):799-807.
• Pubmed ID:
  26464470
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC5996379
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  CC999999/Intramural CDC HHS/United States
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Volume:
  182
• Issue:
  9
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:c68cb8107ecce899fc0ec20ac071531cee3b5fbb76e344cbf95c84d1ae03b229
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/55852/cdc_55852_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 544.46 KB ]