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Evidence for Declining Numbers of Ebola Cases — Montserrado County, Liberia, June–October 2014
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Nov 21 2014
Source: MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2014; 63(46):1072-1076.
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Alternative Title:MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep
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Corporate Authors:National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.) ; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.). Epidemic Intelligence Service ; National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (U.S.) ; Center for Global Health (U.S.) ; National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (U.S.)
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Description:The epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa that began in March 2014 has caused approximately 13,200 suspected, probable, and confirmed cases, including approximately 6,500 in Liberia. About 50% of Liberia's reported cases have been in Montserrado County (population 1.5 million), the most populous county, which contains the capital city, Monrovia. To examine the course of the Ebola epidemic in Montserrado County, data on Ebola treatment unit (ETU) admissions, laboratory testing of patient blood samples, and collection of dead bodies were analyzed. Each of the three data sources indicated consistent declines of 53%-73% following a peak incidence in mid-September. The declines in ETU admissions, percentage of patients with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test results positive for Ebola, and dead bodies are the first evidence of reduction in disease after implementation of multiple prevention and response measures. The possible contributions of these interventions to the decline is not yet fully understood or corroborated. A reduction in cases suggests some progress; however, eliminating Ebola transmission is the critical goal and will require greatly intensified efforts for complete, high-quality surveillance to direct and drive the rapid intervention, tracking, and response efforts that remain essential.
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Pubmed ID:25412066
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC5779509
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