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White paper on novel H1N1
  • Published Date:
    Original: July 6, 2009; Revised: July 27, 2009
Filetype[PDF - 238.91 KB]

  • Personal Authors:
  • Corporate Authors:
    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.) ; Harvard School of Public Health, Center for Public Health Preparedness. ; LAMPS (Linking Assessment and Measurement to Performance in PHEP Systems) ; ... More ▼
  • Funding:
    1 PO1 TP000307-01
  • Series:
    Working paper (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division) ; ESD-WP-2009-07
  • Description:
    1. Background on the influenza virus -- 2. The Epidemiological picture and cross-protection as of late June 2009 -- 3. Antivirals and vaccines -- 4. Recent non-pharmaceutical interventions and international actions -- 5. Communication -- 6. The Past as prologue: waves and patterns from past pandemics -- 7. The future of novel H1N1 -- 8. Acknowledgements

    "This paper is an historical and policy primer for one to prepare for a severe flu pandemic - which is virtually guaranteed to happen at some time in the future. The paper provides actionable knowledge, gleaned from past flu pandemics and from recent science, to reduce the chance of you and your loved ones from contracting the flu. The paper discusses both the new novel H1N1 flu virus and the more lethal H5 N1 ("bird flu") virus. In discussing the future of H1N1, the author says, "Three of the preceding four pandemics, 1889, 1918, and 1957, show clear evidence of some fairly intense but sporadic initial local outbreaks scattered around the world. The novel H1N1 virus seems thus far to be following the pattern of those three pandemics, and it seems highly likely that it will return in full flower." The author projects that a full fledged global pandemic could cut global GDP by up to 4 to 6 percent, and that companies must now prepare for supply chain disruptions, even if only the milder H1N1 becomes the prevalent flu. An individual's behavioral changes with social distancing and hygienic steps can dramatically reduce the chance of contracting the flu." - http://esd.mit.edu/WPS/

    "Work on this paper was supported under a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), grant number 1 PO1 TP000307-01, LAMPS (Linking Assessment and Measurement to Performance in PHEP Systems), awarded to the Harvard School of Public Health Center for Public Health Preparedness (HSPHCPHP) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals (CESF). This paper represents part of the MIT team's LAMPS research, 'Linking Assessment and Measurement to PHEP through Engineering Systems Analysis.' " - p. 17

  • Supporting Files:
    No Additional Files