An elaboration of theory about preventing outbreaks in homogeneous populations to include heterogeneity or preferential mixing

Feng, Zhilan; Hill, Andrew N.; Smith, Philip J.; Glasser, John W.

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.09.006

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An elaboration of theory about preventing outbreaks in homogeneous populations to include heterogeneity or preferential mixing

Sep 14 2015
By Feng, Zhilan ; Hill, Andrew N. ; Smith, Philip J. ; ...
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.09.006
Source: J Theor Biol. 386:177-187.

[PDF-1.17 MB]

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Details:

Alternative Title:

J Theor Biol
Personal Author:

Feng, Zhilan ; Hill, Andrew N. ; Smith, Philip J. ; Glasser, John W.

Feng, Zhilan ; Hill, Andrew N. ; Smith, Philip J. ; Glasser, John W. Less -
Description:

The goal of many vaccination programs is to attain the population immunity above which pathogens introduced by infectious people (e.g., travelers from endemic areas) will not cause outbreaks. Using a simple meta-population model, we demonstrate that, if sub-populations either differ in characteristics affecting their basic reproduction numbers or if their members mix preferentially, weighted average sub-population immunities cannot be compared with the proportionally-mixing homogeneous population-immunity threshold, as public health practitioners are wont to do. Then we review the effect of heterogeneity in average per capita contact rates on the basic meta-population reproduction number. To the extent that population density affects contacts, for example, rates might differ in urban and rural sub-populations. Other differences among sub-populations in characteristics affecting their basic reproduction numbers would contribute similarly. In agreement with more recent results, we show that heterogeneous preferential mixing among sub-populations increases the basic meta-population reproduction number more than homogeneous preferential mixing does. Next we refine earlier results on the effects of heterogeneity in sub-population immunities and preferential mixing on the effective meta-population reproduction number. Finally, we propose the vector of partial derivatives of this reproduction number with respect to the sub-population immunities as a fundamentally new tool for targeting vaccination efforts.
Subjects:

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Article Basic Reproduction Number Communicable Diseases Disease Outbreaks Heterogeneity Humans Immunity, Herd Immunization Programs Models, Biological Population-immunity Threshold Population Dynamics Vaccine Coverage
Source:

J Theor Biol. 386:177-187.
Pubmed ID:

26375548
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC5723926
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

CC999999/Intramural CDC HHS/United States
Collection(s):

CDC Public Access
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:578f9ebd722c605037ac8889cf7b80d6a12b0853b8b77d9071c8e311803583d5
Download URL:

https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/50509/cdc_50509_DS1.pdf
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