Bayesian latent class estimation of the incidence of chest radiograph-confirmed pneumonia in rural Thailand

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Epidemiol Infect
• Personal Author:
  LU, Y. ; BAGGETT, H. C. ; RHODES, J. ; THAMTHITIWAT, S. ; JOSEPH, L. ; GREGORY, C. J.
• Description:
  Pneumonia is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide with radiographically confirmed pneumonia a key disease burden indicator. This is usually determined by a radiology panel which is assumed to be the best available standard; however, this assumption may introduce bias into pneumonia incidence estimates. To improve estimates of radiographic pneumonia incidence, we applied Bayesian latent class modelling (BLCM) to a large database of hospitalized patients with acute lower respiratory tract illness in Sa Kaeo and Nakhon Phanom provinces, Thailand from 2005 to 2010 with chest radiographs read by both a radiology panel and a clinician. We compared these estimates to those from conventional analysis. For children aged <5 years, estimated radiographically confirmed pneumonia incidence by BLCM was 2394/100 000 person-years (95% credible interval 2185-2574) vs. 1736/100 000 person-years (95% confidence interval 1706-1766) from conventional analysis. For persons aged ⩾5 years, estimated radiographically confirmed pneumonia incidence was similar between BLCM and conventional analysis (235 vs. 215/100 000 person-years). BLCM suggests the incidence of radiographically confirmed pneumonia in young children is substantially larger than estimated from the conventional approach using radiology panels as the reference standard.
• Subjects:
  Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 And Over Article Bayes Theorem Child Child, Preschool Female Humans Incidence Infant Infant, Newborn Male Middle Aged Pneumonia Population Surveillance Prevalence Radiography, Thoracic Rural Population Young Adult

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• Source:
  Epidemiol Infect. 144(13):2858-2865
• Pubmed ID:
  26932149
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC5607062
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  CC999999/Intramural CDC HHS/United States
• Place as Subject:
  Thailand
• Volume:
  144
• Issue:
  13
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:e722aab6f3dceed85f02a769462638fda87bc6f8f426faaa4cdfbed8024f143d
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/48242/cdc_48242_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 500.62 KB ]