Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Int J Environ Res Public Health
• Personal Author:
  Zeng, Qiang ; Li, Guoxing ; Cui, Yushan ; Jiang, Guohong ; Pan, Xiaochuan
• Description:
  Few studies have explored temperature-mortality relationships in China, especially at the multi-large city level. This study was based on the data of seven typical, large Chinese cities to examine temperature-mortality relationships and optimum temperature of China. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the acute-effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality, and meta-analysis was used to merge data. Furthermore, the lagged effects of temperature up to 40 days on mortality and optimum temperature were analyzed using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We found that for all non-accidental mortality, high temperature could significantly increase the excess risk (ER) of death by 0.33% (95% confidence interval: 0.11%, 0.56%) with the temperature increase of 1 °C. Similar but non-significant ER of death was observed when temperature decreased. The lagged effect of temperature showed that the relative risk of non-accidental mortality was lowest at 21 °C. Our research suggests that high temperatures are more likely to cause an acute increase in mortality. There was a lagged effect of temperature on mortality, with an optimum temperature of 21 °C. Our results could provide a theoretical basis for climate-related public health policy.
• Subjects:
  Age Distribution Air Pollution Asian People Cities Climate Environmental Exposure Environmental Monitoring Heat Stress Disorders Hot Temperature Humans Models, Theoretical Nonlinear Dynamics Public Health Surveillance Public Policy Risk Urban Health

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• Source:
  Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2016; 13(3).
• Pubmed ID:
  26950139
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC4808942
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  China
• Volume:
  13
• Issue:
  3
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:25ec0c3b097c68e6ec48718ba78dd42759c7e2e444ff624c755d7a8c7f1580cf
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/39111/cdc_39111_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.05 MB ]