Deaths averted by influenza vaccination in the U.S. during the seasons 2005/06 through 2013/14☆

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Vaccine
• Personal Author:
  Foppa, Ivo M. ; Cheng, Po-Yung ; Reynolds, Sue B. ; Shay, David K. ; Carias, Cristina ; Bresee, Joseph S. ; Kim, Inkyu K. ; Gambhir, Manoj ; Fry, Alicia M.
• Description:
  Background ; Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is substantial, yet quantitative estimates of the benefit of annual vaccination programs on influenza-associated mortality are lacking. ; Methods ; We estimated the numbers of deaths averted by vaccination in four age groups (0.5 to 4, 5 to 19, 20 to 64 and ≥65 yrs.) for the nine influenza seasons from 2005/6 through 2013/14. These estimates were obtained using a Monte Carlo approach applied to weekly U.S. age group-specific estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, monthly vaccination coverage estimates and summary seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates to obtain estimates of the number of deaths averted by vaccination. The estimates are conservative as they do not include indirect vaccination effects. ; Results ; From August, 2005 through June, 2014, we estimated that 40,127 (95% confidence interval CI 25,694 to 59,210) deaths were averted by influenza vaccination. We found that of all studied seasons the most deaths were averted by influenza vaccination during the 2012/13 season (9398; 95% CI 2,386 to 19,897) and the fewest during the 2009/10 pandemic (222; 95% CI 79 to 347). Of all influenza-associated deaths averted, 88.9% (95% CI 83 to 92.5%) were in people ≥65 yrs. old. ; Conclusions ; The estimated number of deaths averted by the US annual influenza vaccination program is considerable, especially among elderly adults and even when vaccine effectiveness is modest, such as in the 2012/13 season. As indirect effects (“herd immunity”) of vaccination are ignored, these estimates represent lower bound estimates and are thus conservative given valid excess mortality estimates
• Keywords:
  • Influenza
  • Influenza vaccine
  • Influenza-associated mortality
  • Bayesian analysis
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Averted deaths
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Distribution
  • Aged
  More +
• Source:
  Vaccine. 33(26):3003-3009
• Pubmed ID:
  25812842
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC4834450
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  CC999999/Intramural CDC HHSUnited States/
• Volume:
  33
• Issue:
  26
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/38967/cdc_38967_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 798.53 KB]
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:242272de8ada5450a06c888e225d96da541ecfe416e74ad23d9b1766668520f3