Exposure Models for the Prior Distribution in Bayesian Decision Analysis for Occupational Hygiene Decision Making
Source:J Occup Environ Hyg. 10(2):97-108.
AIHA Exposure Rating Scheme
Bayesian Decision Analysis
COSHH Essentials Scheme
Decision Support Techniques
Monte Carlo Method
Prior Decision Distribution
Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA)
Two-dimensional (2-D) Monte Carlo Simulation
Pubmed Central ID:PMC4665102
Funding:CC999999/Intramural CDC HHS/United States
Description:This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure.
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