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Identification of Hypertension Predictors and Application to Hypertension Prediction in an Urban Han Chinese Population: A Longitudinal Study, 2005–2010
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Oct 29 2015
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Source: Prev Chronic Dis. 12.
[PDF-563.55 KB]
Details:
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Journal Article:Preventing Chronic Disease (PCD)
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Personal Author:
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Description:Introduction
Research suggests that targeting high-risk, nonhypertensive patients for preventive intervention may delay the onset of hypertension. We aimed to develop a biomarker-based risk prediction model for assessing hypertension risk in an urban Han Chinese population.
Methods
We analyzed data from 26,496 people with hypertension to extract factors from 11 check-up biomarkers. Then, depending on a 5-year follow-up cohort, a Cox model for predicting hypertension development was built by using extracted factors as predictors. Finally, we created a hypertension synthetic predictor (HSP) by weighting each factor with its risk for hypertension to develop a risk assessment matrix.
Results
After factor analysis, 5 risk factors were extracted from data for both men and women. After a 5-year follow-up, the cohort of participants had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve [AUC]) with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.755 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.746–0.763) for men and an OR of 0.801 (95% CI, 0.792–0.810) for women. After tenfold cross validation, the AUC was still high, with 0.755 (95% CI, 0.746–0.763) for men and 0.800 (95% CI, 0.791–0.810) for women. An HSP-based 5-year risk matrix provided a convenient tool for risk appraisal.
Conclusion
Hypertension could be explained by 5 factors in a population sample of Chinese urban Han. The HSP may be useful in predicting hypertension.
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DOI:
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ISSN:1545-1151
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Pubmed ID:26513440
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC4663898
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Volume:12
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