Reporting incidence from a surveillance system with an operational case definition of unknown predictive value positive
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Reporting incidence from a surveillance system with an operational case definition of unknown predictive value positive

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  • Alternative Title:
    Epidemiol Perspect Innov
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  • Description:
    When reporting incidence rate estimates for relatively rare health conditions, associated case counts are often assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Case counts obtained from large-scale electronic surveillance systems are often inflated by the presence of false positives, however, and adjusted case counts based on the results of a validation sample will have variances which are hyper-Poisson. This paper presents a simple method for constructing interval estimates for incidence rates based on case counts that are adjusted downward using an estimate of the predictive value positive of the surveillance case definition.
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