HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report: U.S. HIV and AIDS cases reported through June 1997

Details

• Alternative Title:
  HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report; Mid-year Edition, Vol. 9, No. 1: U.S. HIV and AIDS cases reported through June 1997
• Journal Article:
  HIV/AIDS surveillance
• Corporate Authors:
  National Center for HIV, STD, and TB Prevention (U.S.). Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention.
• Description:
  Notice to readers: This issue of the HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report includes six new tables and a figure. Tables 16 through 18 present estimated deaths of persons with AIDS. Tables 19 through 21 present estimates of persons living with AIDS. Figure 6 presents the estimated incidence of AIDS, AIDS-opportunistic illnesses, and deaths of persons with AIDS. See Commentary:.
  
  Commentary: In addition to the importance of HIV/AIDS surveillance data for tracking and forecasting trends in the epidemic, data on the number of persons reported with AIDS are used to target and allocate resources for prevention and treatment services. Some of the tables and figures presented in the HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report include counts of cases (e.g., tables 1-3, 22; figures 3-5) which represent the number of individuals reported with AIDS or HIV infection. The number of cases reported cumulatively or during a recent time period indicates the size and characteristics of the populations affected by the epidemic and the distribution and impact of HIV/AIDS nationally.
  
  Through June 30, 1997, a cumulative total of 612,078 persons with AIDS were reported to CDC by state and territorial health departments (table 1). Of these, 84 percent were adult/adolescent men, 15 percent were adult/adolescent women, and 1 percent were children (under 13 years of age). Of adults/adolescents reported during the last 12 months (July 1996–June 1997), 36 percent were white, 43 percent were black, and 20 percent were Hispanic. Men who have sex with men accounted for the largest proportion of reported cases (38 percent). Among 609 children reported in the last 12 months, 15 percent were white, 63 percent were black, and 21 percent were Hispanic (table 6). Over 90 percent of these children were infected perinatally. In addition, 29 states that conduct HIV case surveillance of adults, adolescents, and/or children reported 86,972 persons who were diagnosed with HIV (excluding persons tested anonymously) but not yet diagnosed with AIDS (table 22). The demographic and risk/exposure characteristics of reported cases of AIDS and HIV are presented in tables 1-12 and 22-28.
  
  Many factors affect the number of cases of HIV or AIDS that will be reported to CDC in any given time period. Current and historic HIV transmission patterns, patterns of HIV testing and access to care, the impact of therapy on the course of HIV disease, and variations in surveillance practices over time or from one jurisdiction to another are factors that affect the interpretation of surveillance case report data.
  
  Tables 16-21 and figure 6 have been added to this edition of the surveillance report to more fully represent current trends in the epidemic. In addition to the estimated numbers of cases diagnosed with AIDS-defining opportunistic illnesses (AIDS-OIs) presented in tables 13-15, this report includes estimated numbers of deaths of persons reported with AIDS, and estimates of the prevalence of AIDS. CDC has received requests for data describing trends in AIDS prevalence and deaths. These data are of interest as a measure of the impact of antiretroviral therapy on AIDS trends. Because they do not represent actual counts of persons with AIDS who were reported to CDC, the estimates are presented as rounded numbers in the tables.
  
  In 1996, the estimated number of persons diagnosed with an AIDS-OI decreased for the first time, from 61,300 estimated cases in 1995 to 57,200 in 1996 (tables 13-15). The actual decrease in AIDS-OI incidence is likely to be greater than the estimated decrease in this report. The estimates of AIDS-OI incidence are based on the estimates of disease progression rates among persons enrolled in CDC’s Adult/adolescent Spectrum of Disease Project, but there are not yet sufficient data to estimate the effects of the use of recently available antiretroviral treatments. Also for the first time in 1996, the estimated deaths among persons with AIDS declined to 39,200 from 50,700 in 1995 (tables 16-18). The cumulative number of persons estimated to have been diagnosed with AIDS based on the 1993 case definition and who have not been reported as deceased (i.e., the estimated number of prevalent AIDS cases or persons who are living with AIDS), continued to increase, from 215,000 estimated cases in 1995 to 239,000 cases in 1996 (tables 19-21).
  
  The estimates are derived from models which adjust surveillance data to account for delays in reporting cases to CDC and for changes in the AIDS case definition over time. Estimates of AIDS incidence and deaths are not adjusted for incomplete reporting. To illustrate how these estimates are used to monitor trends, figure 6 presents three estimated incidence curves. The top curve represents the number of cases diagnosed with AIDS using the 1993 definition criteria after adjustments for reporting delays. It represents the distribution of all cases diagnosed with AIDS and illustrates the distorting effect of the change in the case definition. The middle curve represents the estimated number of cases diagnosed with AIDS-OIs and accounts for the change in case definition and reporting delays. It shows the gradual slowing in the growth of the epidemic during the mid-1990's and the recent decline in AIDS-OI incidence using consistent diagnostic criteria over time. The bottom curve represents the reported number of deaths of persons with AIDS using the 1993 case definition after adjustments for reporting delays. It shows the substantial recent decline in deaths of persons with AIDS. The convergence of the top and middle curves in figure 6 illustrates that the temporary distorting effect that the expansion of the AIDS surveillance case definition had on temporal trends has waned. In the near future, it will no longer be necessary to adjust for the effect of the 1993 expanded case definition when presenting estimated numbers of AIDS cases diagnosed in a given year or when comparing trends in diagnoses over time, from approximately 1996 forward.
  
  The estimation procedures and the sources of data included in the models are described in the Technical Notes of this report. Because the analysis and interpretation of surveillance data require an understanding of how the data are collected, reported, and analyzed, as well as their uses and limitations, readers of this report are encouraged to review the Technical Notes and consult the references listed under Suggested Reading.
  
  
• Content Notes:
  Publication date approximated.
• Subjects:
  Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Epidemiology Data Interpretation, Statistical Epidemics Epidemiological Monitoring HIV Public Health Surveillance Statistics Tables
• Keywords:
  DHP_HIV_Reports
• Series:
  HIV Surveillance Report
• Subseries:
  HIVSR
• Publisher:
  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (U.S.)
• Document Type:
  Text
• Genre:
  Statistics ; Report
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Rights:
  Public Domain
• CIO:
  National Center for HIV, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHSTP)
• Division:
  DHP - Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention
• Topic:
  Diseases & Conditions
• Location:
  North America
• Pages in Document:
  37 pdf pages
• Volume:
  9
• Issue:
  1
• Citation:
  Suggested Citation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report, 1997;9(No. 1):[inclusive page numbers].
• Collection(s):
  Infectious Diseases
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:ca348d196554607556176c420aa5af4822eaecd0997448cf8bc1ab3baf9ce7e45493938cf12d337eeacf43b84e98faabe100e56495bb7d41badf1ac5a9e3b117
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/34400/cdc_34400_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 530.58 KB ]