The Past, Present, and Future of Cancer Incidence in the United States: 1975 Through 2020

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Cancer
• Personal Author:
  Weir, Hannah K. ; Thompson, Trevor D. ; Soman, Ashwini ; Møller, Bjørn ; Leadbetter, Steven
• Description:
  BACKGROUND
  
  The overall age-standardized cancer incidence rate continues to decline whereas the number of cases diagnosed each year increases. Predicting cancer incidence can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform research.
  
  METHODS
  
  Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were used to estimate the number of cancers (all sites) resulting from changes in population risk, age, and size. The authors projected to 2020 nationwide age-standardized incidence rates and cases (including the top 23 cancers).
  
  RESULTS
  
  Since 1975, incident cases increased among white individuals, primarily caused by an aging white population, and among black individuals, primarily caused by an increasing black population. Between 2010 and 2020, it is expected that overall incidence rates (proxy for risk) will decrease slightly among black men and stabilize in other groups. By 2020, the authors predict annual cancer cases (all races, all sites) to increase among men by 24.1% (−3.2% risk and 27.3% age/growth) to >1 million cases, and by 20.6% among women (1.2% risk and 19.4% age/growth) to >900,000 cases. The largest increases are expected for melanoma (white individuals); cancers of the prostate, kidney, liver, and urinary bladder in males; and the lung, breast, uterus, and thyroid in females.
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  
  Overall, the authors predict cancer incidence rates/risk to stabilize for the majority of the population; however, they expect the number of cancer cases to increase by >20%. A greater emphasis on primary prevention and early detection is needed to counter the effect of an aging and growing population on the burden of cancer.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Female Humans Incidence Male Neoplasms SEER Program United States
• Keywords:
  Cancer Cancer Registries Incidence Predictions Projections Surveillance
• Source:
  Cancer. 2015; 121(11):1827-1837
• Pubmed ID:
  25649671
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC4507799
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  CC999999/Intramural CDC HHSUnited States/
• Volume:
  121
• Issue:
  11
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:8d320e45dcb615056b8ce811ec3461e7a73d433b26fbe85bac9fd120342073e9
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/32228/cdc_32228_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.51 MB ]