Dengue Forecasting Project
Corporate Authors:National Science and Technology Council (U.S.). Pandemic Prediction and Forecasting Science and Technology Interagency Working Group. ; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.) ; United States. Department of Defense. ; ... More ▼
Description:Appendix 1. Model description -- Appendix 2. Forecast format -- Appendix 3. Evaluation metrics.
Several departments in the U.S. Federal Government (Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Defense, Department of Commerce, and the Department of Homeland Security) have joined together, with the support of the Pandemic Prediction and Forecasting Science and Technology Interagency Working Group under the National Science and Technology Council, to design an infectious disease forecasting project with the aim of galvanizing efforts to predict epidemics of dengue.
This interagency project will assess forecasts using historical data from Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. On this webpage you can find the forecast targets, dengue data, environmental data, submission procedure evaluation criteria, and a detailed description of the project. Information about dengue is available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
In areas where dengue is endemic, incidence follows seasonal transmission patterns punctuated every few years by much larger epidemics. Because these epidemics are currently unpredictable and of major consequence to the affected populations, the initial focus of the pilot project will be forecasting key metrics for historical dengue seasons using only data from time periods prior to those seasons.
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