23238486

PMC4258106

Study Design

Prospective population-based cohort study

Objective

To identify early predictors of lumbar spine surgery within 3 years after occupational back injury

Summary of Background Data

Back injuries are the most prevalent occupational injury in the United States. Little is known about predictors of lumbar spine surgery following occupational back injury.

Methods

Using Disability Risk Identification Study Cohort (D-RISC) data, we examined the early predictors of lumbar spine surgery within 3 years among Washington State workers with new worker’s compensation temporary total disability claims for back injuries. Baseline measures included worker-reported measures obtained approximately 3 weeks after claim submission. We used medical bill data to determine whether participants underwent surgery, covered by the claim, within 3 years. Baseline predictors (P < 0.10) of surgery in bivariate analyses were included in a multivariate logistic regression model predicting lumbar spine surgery. The model’s area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to determine the model’s ability to identify correctly workers who underwent surgery.

Results

In the D-RISC sample of 1,885 workers, 174 (9.2%) had a lumbar spine surgery within 3 years. Baseline variables associated with surgery (P < 0.05) in the multivariate model included higher Roland Disability Questionnaire scores, greater injury severity, and surgeon as first provider seen for the injury. Reduced odds of surgery were observed for those under age 35, women, Hispanics, and those whose first provider was a chiropractor. 42.7% of workers who first saw a surgeon had surgery, in contrast to only 1.5% of those who saw a chiropractor. The multivariate model’s AUC was 0.93 (95% CI 0.92–0.95), indicating excellent ability to discriminate between workers who would versus would not have surgery.

Conclusion

Baseline variables in multiple domains predicted lumbar spine surgery. There was a very strong association between surgery and first provider seen for the injury, even after adjustment for other important variables.

CDC Public Access

R01 OH004069/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States
T32 AR049710/AR/NIAMS NIH HHS/United States
R01-OH04069/OH/NIOSH CDC HHS/United States