Details:

Alternative Title:
PLoS One
Publisher's site:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0092521
Personal Author:
Halasa, Tariq ; Boklund, Anette ; Stockmarr, Anders ; Enøe, Claes ; Christiansen, Lasse E.
Halasa, Tariq ; Boklund, Anette ; Stockmarr, Anders ; Enøe, Claes ; Christiansen, Lasse E. Less -
Description:
Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models' predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outcomes of each model. The DTU-DADS (version 0.100), and ISP (version 2.001.11) were used to simulate a hypothetical spread of FMD in Denmark. Actual herd type, movements, and location data in the period 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007 was used. The models simulated the spread of FMD using 3 different control scenarios: 1) A basic scenario representing EU and Danish control strategies, 2) pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds within a 500 meters radius around the detected herds, and 3) suppressive vaccination of susceptible herds within a 1,000 meters radius around the detected herds. Depopulation and vaccination started 14 days following the detection of the first infected herd. Five thousand index herds were selected randomly, of which there were 1,000 cattle herds located in high density cattle areas and 1,000 in low density cattle areas, 1,000 swine herds located in high density swine areas and 1,000 in low density swine areas, and 1,000 sheep herds. Generally, DTU-DADS predicted larger, longer duration and costlier epidemics than ISP, except when epidemics started in cattle herds located in high density cattle areas. ISP supported suppressive vaccination rather than pre-emptive depopulation, while DTU-DADS was indifferent to the alternative control strategies. Nonetheless, the absolute differences between control strategies were small making the choice of control strategy during an outbreak to be most likely based on practical reasons.
Subjects:
[+]
Animals Cattle Cattle Diseases Computer Simulation Disease Outbreaks Foot-and-Mouth Disease Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Models, Theoretical Prevalence Sheep Sheep Diseases Swine Swine Diseases Time Factors Vaccination
Source:
PLoS One. 2014; 9(3).
Document Type:
Journal Article
Place as Subject:
Denmark
Collection(s):
CDC Public Access
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:73989b64b7bb02207af290fcf79e0ba012d3a022c83c1fe8f61e2d40496d50d3
Download URL:
https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/27589/cdc_27589_DS1.pdf
File Type:

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