Using Simulation to Compare Established and Emerging Interventions to Reduce Cardiovascular Disease Risk in the United States

Details

• Journal Article:
  Preventing Chronic Disease (PCD)
• Personal Author:
  Homer, Jack ; Wile, Kristina ; Yarnoff, Benjamin ; Trogdon, Justin G. ; Hirsch, Gary ; Cooper, Lawton ; Soler, Robin ; Orenstein, Diane
• Description:
  Introduction
  
  Computer simulation offers the ability to compare diverse interventions for reducing cardiovascular disease risks in a controlled and systematic way that cannot be done in the real world.
  
  Methods
  
  We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) to analyze the effect of 50 intervention levers, grouped into 6 (2 x 3) clusters on the basis of whether they were established or emerging and whether they acted in the policy domains of care (clinical, mental health, and behavioral services), air (smoking, secondhand smoke, and air pollution), or lifestyle (nutrition and physical activity). Uncertainty ranges were established through probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
  
  Results
  
  Results indicate that by 2040, all 6 intervention clusters combined could result in cumulative reductions of 49% to 54% in the cardiovascular risk-related death rate and of 13% to 21% in risk factor-attributable costs. A majority of the death reduction would come from Established interventions, but Emerging interventions would also contribute strongly. A slim majority of the cost reduction would come from Emerging interventions.
  
  Conclusion
  
  PRISM allows public health officials to examine the potential influence of different types of interventions — both established and emerging — for reducing cardiovascular risks. Our modeling suggests that established interventions could still contribute much to reducing deaths and costs, especially through greater use of well-known approaches to preventive and acute clinical care, whereas emerging interventions have the potential to contribute significantly, especially through certain types of preventive care and improved nutrition.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Air Pollution Cardiovascular Diseases Computer Simulation Delivery Of Health Care Humans Life Style Mental Health Services Models, Theoretical Original Research Risk Factors
• Source:
  Prev Chronic Dis. 11.
• DOI:
  http://dx.doi.org/10.5888/pcd11.140130
• ISSN:
  1545-1151
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Location:
  North America
• Volume:
  11
• Collection(s):
  Preventing Chronic Disease
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:5b88287dd3224d84c35d6d76904d75a9fff344c5523552f2dddad52661becc8598acc0852d5e2b45ec7470f3fedce68dca8c58744b06108f5992a873a4e127b9
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/26022/cdc_26022_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 445.84 KB ]