Details:

Alternative Title:
Osong Public Health Res Perspect
Publisher's site:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2011.04.001
Personal Author:
Eichner, Martin ; Dowell, Scott F. ; Firese, Nina
Eichner, Martin ; Dowell, Scott F. ; Firese, Nina Less -
Description:
Objectives

Ebola hemorrhagic fever has killed over 1300 people, mostly in equatorial Africa. There is still uncertainty about the natural reservoir of the virus and about some of the factors involved in disease transmission. Until now, a maximum incubation period of 21 days has been assumed.

Methods

We analyzed data collected during the Ebola outbreak (subtype Zaire) in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in 1995 using maximum likelihood inference and assuming a log-normally distributed incubation period.

Results

The mean incubation period was estimated to be 12.7 days (standard deviation 4.31 days), indicating that about 4.1% of patients may have incubation periods longer than 21 days.

Conclusion

If the risk of new cases is to be reduced to 1% then 25 days should be used when investigating the source of an outbreak, when determining the duration of surveillance for contacts, and when declaring the end of an outbreak.


Subject:
[+]
Disease Outbreaks/prevention & Control
Ebola/epidemiology
Ebola/prevention & Control
Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever
Invited Original Article
Statistical Models

Source:
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011; 2(1):3-7.
Document Type:
Journal Article
Collection(s):
CDC Public Access
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:79b3ef305d0dd9e8a725524cac89c788b888b32ad33222963ec39aa4faaa7509
File Type:

Supporting Files

• 	license.txt	txt
  	main.nxml	txt

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