Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies Before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring

Details

• Personal Author:
  Kaufman JD ; Keller JP ; Kim S-Y ; Larson TV ; Olives C ; Sampson PD ; Sheppard L
• Description:
  Introduction: Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. Objectives: We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications. Methods: We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from the FRM and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks. Temporal trends before 1999 were estimated by using a) extrapolation based on PM2.5 data in FRM/IMPROVE, b) PM2.5 sulfate data in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network, and c) visibility data across the Weather Bureau Army Navy network. We validated the models using PM2.5 data collected before 1999 from IMPROVE, California Air Resources Board dichotomous sampler monitoring (CARB dichot), the Children's Health Study (CHS), and the Inhalable Particulate Network (IPN). Results: In our validation using pre-1999 data, the prediction model performed well across three trend estimation approaches when validated using IMPROVE and CHS data (R2 = 0.84-0.91) with lower R2 values in early years. Model performance using CARB dichot and IPN data was worse (R2 = 0.00-0.85) most likely because of fewer monitoring sites and inconsistent sampling methods. Conclusions: Our prediction modeling approach will allow health effects estimation associated with long-term exposures to PM2.5 over extended time periods ≤ 30 years. [Description provided by NIOSH]
• Subjects:
  Air Pollution Cohort Studies Environmental Monitoring Epidemiology Occupational Health Particulate Matter Safety
• Keywords:
  Air Pollution Air Quality Monitoring Cohort Studies Environmental Monitoring Exposure Assessment Models Particulates Sampling Methods
• ISSN:
  0091-6765
• Document Type:
  Text
• Funding:
  Grant
• Genre:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  OSHA Region 10 ; Washington
• CIO:
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)
• Topic:
  Workplace Safety & Health
• Location:
  North America
• Pages in Document:
  38-46
• Volume:
  125
• Issue:
  1
• NIOSHTIC Number:
  nn:20063784
• Citation:
  Environ Health Perspect 2017 Jan; 125(1):38-46
• Contact Point Address:
  J.D. Kaufman, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE, Seattle, WA 98105 USA
• Email:
  joelk@uw.edu
• Federal Fiscal Year:
  2017
• Performing Organization:
  University of Washington
• Peer Reviewed:
  True
• Start Date:
  20050701
• Source Full Name:
  Environmental Health Perspectives
• End Date:
  20250630
• Collection(s):
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:c554ba818a8daad1143369c375d65839bf04b80beb862b78d23091274fd829f5a0d8767ef986febfe0b3b5c4be563d553090103082f661ca5d7ae2833695aca6
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/222339/cdc_222339_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.01 MB ]