Prolonged Coccidioidomycosis Transmission Seasons in a Warming California: A Markov State Transition Model of Shifting Disease Dynamics

Details

• Personal Author:
  Bhattachan A ; Camponuri SK ; Collender PA ; Colvin KA ; Head JR ; Heaney AK ; Jain S ; Remais JV ; Sondermeyer-Cooksey G ; Vugia DJ ; Weaver AK
• Description:
  Coccidioidomycosis, an emerging fungal disease in the southwestern United States, exhibits pronounced seasonal transmission, yet the influence of current and future climate on the timing and duration of transmission seasons remains poorly understood. We developed a distributed-lag Markov state transition model to estimate the effects of temperature and precipitation on the timing of transmission season onset and end, analysing reported coccidioidomycosis cases (n = 72 125) in California from 2000 to 2023. Using G-computation substitution estimators, we examined how hypothetical changes in seasonal meteorology impact transmission season timing. Transitions from cooler, wetter conditions to hotter, drier conditions were found to significantly accelerate season onset. Dry conditions (10th percentile of precipitation) in the spring shifted season onset an average of 2.8 weeks (95% CI: 0.43-3.58) earlier compared with wet conditions (90th percentile of precipitation). Conversely, transitions back to cooler, wetter conditions hastened season end, with dry autumn conditions extending the season by an average of 0.69 weeks (95% CI: 0.37-1.41) compared with wet conditions. When dry conditions occurred in the spring and autumn, the transmission season extended by 3.70 weeks (95% CI: 1.23- 4.22). With prolonged dry seasons expected in California with climate change, our findings suggest this shift will extend the period of elevated coccidioidomycosis risk. [Description provided by NIOSH]
• Subjects:
  Hot Temperature Occupational Health Safety
• Keywords:
  Author Keywords: Coccidioidomycosis Climate Change Coccidioidomycosis Disease Transmission Environmental Health Fungal Diseases Hot Environments Multi-state Model Seasonal Factors Seasonality Transmission Season Valley Fever

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• ISSN:
  1742-5689
• Document Type:
  Text
• Funding:
  Grant
• Genre:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  California ; Chicago Region [OSHA] ; Dallas Region [OSHA] ; Michigan ; San Francisco Region [OSHA] ; Texas
• CIO:
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)
• Topic:
  Workplace Safety & Health
• Location:
  North America
• Volume:
  22
• Issue:
  223
• NIOSHTIC Number:
  nn:20070552
• Citation:
  J R Soc Interface 2025 Feb; 22(223):20240821
• Contact Point Address:
  Justin V. Remais, Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
• Email:
  jvr@berkeley.edu
• Federal Fiscal Year:
  2025
• Performing Organization:
  University of California, Berkeley
• Peer Reviewed:
  True
• Start Date:
  20050701
• Source Full Name:
  Journal of the Royal Society. Interface
• End Date:
  20250630
• Collection(s):
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:0743321819b2061e7a9045b3be0aaeab7274e847f43009f11176fbfa73dbcf50a07f24c9c17c326d5f385851b63326a4a1e4f27a9766a13139146ac3f77b3973
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/208737/cdc_208737_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.81 MB ]