Model Uncertainty and Risk Estimation for Experimental Studies of Quantal Responses

Details

• Personal Author:
  Bailer AJ ; Noble RB ; Wheeler, Matthew W.
• Description:
  Experimental animal studies often serve as the basis for predicting risk of adverse responses in humans exposed to occupational hazards. A statistical model is applied to exposure-response data and this fitted model may be used to obtain estimates of the exposure associated with a specified level of adverse response. Unfortunately, a number of different statistical models are candidates for fitting the data and may result in wide ranging estimates of risk. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) offers a strategy for addressing uncertainty in the selection of statistical models when generating risk estimates. This strategy is illustrated with two examples: applying the multistage model to cancer responses and a second example where different quantal models are fit to kidney lesion data. BMA provides excess risk estimates or benchmark dose estimates that reflects model uncertainty. [Description provided by NIOSH]
• Subjects:
  Air Pollutants, Occupational Chemistry Coal Coal Mining Engineering Ergonomics Explosions Fuel Oils Geology Methane Mining Occupational Health Particulate Matter Petroleum Safety Water Purification

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• Keywords:
  Author Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging Benchmark Doses Cancer Exposure-levels Kidneys Mathematical-models Models Occupational-exposure Occupational-hazards Quantal Multistage Models Risk-analysis Risk-factors Statistical-analysis Unit Cancer Risk

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• ISSN:
  0272-4332
• Document Type:
  Text
• Genre:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  Ohio ; OSHA Region 5
• CIO:
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)
• Division:
  EID - Education and Information Division
• Topic:
  Workplace Safety & Health
• Location:
  North America
• Pages in Document:
  291-299
• Volume:
  25
• Issue:
  2
• NIOSHTIC Number:
  nn:20026845
• Citation:
  Risk Anal 2005 Apr; 25(2):291-299
• Contact Point Address:
  Risk Evaluation Branch, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, 4676 Columbia Parkway, Cincinnati, OH 45224, USA
• Email:
  baileraj@muohio.edu
• Federal Fiscal Year:
  2005
• Peer Reviewed:
  True
• Source Full Name:
  Risk Analysis
• Collection(s):
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:6200d3f655ce888693677f5b50d0c5552f1fd11feac634ee6715ef5c01ae58d3c11399cca0d516844eef68d25e5331d9e6ddbc907e4951910fc4272442ffa660
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/197393/cdc_197393_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 300.77 KB ]