Details:

Alternative Title:
Prev Chronic Dis
Personal Author:
van Meijgaard, Jeroen ; Fielding, Jonathan E.
van Meijgaard, Jeroen ; Fielding, Jonathan E. Less -
Description:
Introduction

Despite years of declining smoking prevalence, tobacco use is still the leading preventable contributor to illness and death in the United States, and the effect of past tobacco-use control efforts has not fully translated into improvements in health outcomes. The objective of this study was to use a life course model with multiple competing causes of death to elucidate the ongoing benefits of tobacco-use control efforts on US death rates.

Methods

We used a continuous-time life course simulation model for the US population. We modeled smoking initiation and cessation and 20 leading causes of death as competing risks over the life span, with the risk of death for each cause dependent on past and current smoking status. Risk parameters were estimated using data from the National Health Interview Survey that were linked to follow-up mortality data.

Results

Up to 14% (9% for men, 14% for women) of the total gain in life expectancy since 1960 was due to tobacco-use control efforts. Past efforts are expected to further increase life expectancy by 0.9 years for women and 1.3 years for men. Additional reduction in smoking prevalence may eventually yield an average 3.4-year increase in life expectancy in the United States. Coronary heart disease is expected to increase as a share of total deaths.

Conclusions

A dynamic individual-level model with multiple causes of death supports assessment of the delayed benefits of improved tobacco-use control efforts. We show that past smoking reduction efforts will translate into further increases in life expectancy in the coming years. Smoking will remain a major contributor to preventable illness and death, worthy of continued interventions.


Subjects:
[+]
Adolescent Adult Age Of Onset Alcohol Drinking Body Mass Index Capacity Building Cause Of Death Chronic Disease Cost-Benefit Analysis Cross-Sectional Studies Exercise Female Health Surveys Humans Life Expectancy Male Middle Aged Mortality Occupational Health Occupations Original Research Prevalence Sex Distribution Smoking Smoking Cessation Social Class
Source:
Prev Chronic Dis. 9.
Document Type:
Journal Article
Place as Subject:
United States
Location:
North America
Collection(s):
Preventing Chronic Disease
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:1a4fa68823df2195679e87a98b1f59a0b1d4615ed79e572819f26c8f05648327
Download URL:
https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/19728/cdc_19728_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Supporting Files

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  	PCD-9-E122.nxml	txt
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  	PCD-9-E122s01.jpg	jpeg
  	PCD-9-E122s02.gif	gif
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