Combining professional judgment and exposure data - Bayesian decision analysis

Details

• Personal Author:
  Hewett, Paul
• Description:
  Bayesian Decision Analysis (BDA): An adjunct or alternative to the calculation and interpretation of traditional statistics. The goal of BDA is to estimate the probability that the true exposure profile falls into a particular category, or Rating Zone. How do we decide which rating zone best describes exposures in a particular work environment, and express our confidence in that decision? Summary: Conventional IH Data Analysis and Interpretation Rate the SEG. Collect n measurements per exposure group Estimate group statistics. Calculate the sample X0.95 and its 95%UCL Compare to OEL (or exposure ratings). Mentally factor in professional judgment and experience, and reach a decision: Acceptable vs. Unacceptable or HC, WC, C, PC, or UC. The Bayesian Method: Combining professional judgment (or other information) with our current data to reach a decision is a Bayesian process. Bayesian statistics: branch of statistics that acknowledges that decisions are rarely based upon the data alone. Is our IH a Bayesian statistician? The Bayesian Method - Key Concepts: Prior distribution 1.) Represents our expectation based upon professional judgment, past data, experience, modeling, etc. 2.) Two types: Non-informative prior - represents complete ignorance of the work environment; Informative prior - mathematically represents our judgment or experience with this work environment. [Description provided by NIOSH]
• Subjects:
  Occupational Health Quality Control Safety Workplace
• Keywords:
  Analytical-processes Industrial-hygiene Industrial-hygiene-programs Industrial-hygienists Mathematical-models Qualitative-analysis Quality-standards Quantitative-analysis Safety-education Standards Statistical-analysis Statistical-quality-control Work-analysis Work-environment Work-operations Work-performance Work-practices Workplace-studies

  More +
• Publisher:
  American Industrial Hygiene Association
• Document Type:
  Text
• Funding:
  Grant
• Genre:
  Conference Publications
• Place as Subject:
  Minnesota ; OSHA Region 5
• CIO:
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)
• Topic:
  Workplace Safety & Health
• Location:
  North America
• Pages in Document:
  1-17
• NIOSHTIC Number:
  nn:20037678
• Citation:
  American Industrial Hygiene Conference and Exposition, May 8-13, 2004, Atlanta, Georgia. Fairfax, VA: American Industrial Hygiene Association, 2004 May; :1-17
• Email:
  phewett@oesh.com
• Federal Fiscal Year:
  2004
• Performing Organization:
  University of Minnesota Twin Cities
• Peer Reviewed:
  False
• Start Date:
  20050701
• Source Full Name:
  American Industrial Hygiene Conference and Exposition, May 8-13, 2004, Atlanta, Georgia
• End Date:
  20250630
• Collection(s):
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:4605c75dae0f56def216390a04a12f36e1bf46bf0a61941f44fc0b406ee2e8fcf409fa1fa55c3f64deae0bfbb80f2b34b7752da9ce937b12ddb8784c40c3bf81
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/191675/cdc_191675_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 854.13 KB ]