Modeling approaches to inform travel-related policies for COVID-19 containment: a scoping review and future directions

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Travel Med Infect Dis
• Personal Author:
  Koiso, Satoshi ; Gulbas, Eren ; Dike, Lotanna ; Mulroy, Nora M. ; Ciaranello, Andrea L. ; Freedberg, Kenneth A. ; Jalali, Mohammad S. ; Walker, Allison T. ; Ryan, Edward T. ; LaRocque, Regina C. ; Hyle, Emily P.
  More +
• Description:
  Background ; Travel-related strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 evolved rapidly in response to changes in the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and newly available tools for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Modeling is an important methodology to investigate the range of outcomes that could occur from different disease containment strategies. ; Methods ; We examined 43 articles published from December 2019 through September 2022 that used modeling to evaluate travel-related COVID-19 containment strategies. We extracted and synthesized data regarding study objectives, methods, outcomes, populations, settings, strategies, and costs. We used a standardized approach to evaluate each analysis according to 26 criteria for modeling quality and rigor. ; Results ; The most frequent approaches included compartmental modeling to examine quarantine, isolation, or testing. Early in the pandemic, the goal was to prevent travel-related COVID-19 cases with a focus on individual-level outcomes and assessing strategies such as travel restrictions, quarantine without testing, social distancing, and on-arrival PCR testing. After the development of diagnostic tests and vaccines, modeling studies projected population-level outcomes and investigated these tools to limit COVID-19 spread. Very few published studies included rapid antigen screening strategies, costs, explicit model calibration, or critical evaluation of the modeling approaches. ; Conclusion ; Future modeling analyses should leverage open-source data, improve the transparency of modeling methods, incorporate newly available prevention, diagnostics, and treatments, and include costs and cost-effectiveness so that modeling analyses can be informative to address future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and other emerging infectious diseases (e.g., mpox and Ebola) for travel-related health policies.
• Subjects:
  • COVID-19
  • Humans
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Travel
  • Quarantine
  • Communicable Disease Control
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Health Policy
• Keywords:
  • COVID-19
  • modeling
  • travel
  • public health policies
  • decision analysis
• Source:
  Travel Med Infect Dis. 62:102730
• Pubmed ID:
  38830442
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC11606784
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  U01 CK000633/CK/NCEZID CDC HHSUnited States/
• Volume:
  62
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/170800/cdc_170800_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.25 MB]
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:76f1d9fb6a4281148f17387f846ad821e558f9aa94474d025f2631405c70306ed612450136b77880d4fa38e4ff611bdc24c69b2260b1c0365c9914c017a9af4c