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Forecasts of flu hospital admissions
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February 9, 2024
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Alternative Title:Forecasts of flu hospitalizations
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Description:Updated February 9, 2024
Reported and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions as of February 7, 2024.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospital Admissions
• This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions will likely decrease nationally, with 3,800 to 15,000 laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending February 24, 2024.
• This week, 26 modeling groups contributed 31 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
• Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
• The figure shows the number of new laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through February 3 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks, through February 24. Hospitals are required to report daily laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN).
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