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Forecasts of flu hospitalizations
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November 27, 2023
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Description:Updated November 27, 2023
Reported and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions as of November 22, 2023.
Interpretation of National Forecasts of New Hospitalizations
• This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions will likely increase nationally, with 2,900 to 10,000 laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending December 9, 2023.
• This week, 22 modeling groups contributed 27 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
• Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
• The figure shows the number of new laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through November 18 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks, through December 9. Hospitals are required to report daily laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect.
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