Respiratory Disease Season Outlook
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Respiratory Disease Season Outlook

Filetype[PDF-1.15 MB]


English

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  • Alternative Title:
    CDC Respiratory Disease Season Outlook
  • Corporate Authors:
  • Description:
    Assessment as of Thursday, September 14, 2023

    CDC expects the upcoming fall and winter respiratory disease season will likely have a similar number of total hospitalizations compared to last year. As with last year, the number of hospitalizations is expected to be higher than that experienced prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, when severe disease was caused primarily by the influenza virus and the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

    However, it remains possible that hospitalizations this season may be higher than last year, with more widespread illness and healthcare system strain. This increase could result from the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant with an increased ability to evade the body’s prior immunity, or from a severe influenza season combined with COVID-19 and RSV waves that are similar to last year, or, as we saw last year, an increase in RSV infections. A key factor is the timing of the peak number of hospitalizations associated with each disease and whether those peaks coincide.

    This outlook is based on expert judgment, historical data, and scenario modeling for COVID-19. We have low to moderate confidence in this assessment because of uncertainties in anticipating the timing of when diseases will peak and levels of disease.

    Vaccination remains the best way to protect yourself and your loved ones against serious outcomes of these diseases. Vaccination is especially important for people who are at higher risk of developing serious complications.

    CDC is offering this outlook to provide decision-makers information to assist with public health preparedness planning, including potential surges in hospital demand.

  • Content Notes:
    Outlook -- Rationale -- Uncertainties -- Peak Burden Scenarios -- Effect of Variants -- Monitoring and Early Warning.
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