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Health economic analysis of vaccine options for the polio eradication endgame: 2022–2036
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11 2022
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Source: Expert Rev Vaccines. 21(11):1667-1674
[PDF-363.52 KB]
Details:
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Alternative Title:Expert Rev Vaccines
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Personal Author:
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Description:Background:
Multiple vaccine options are available for polio prevention and risk management. Integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling provides a tool to explore the dynamics of ending all use of one or more poliovirus vaccines to simplify the polio eradication endgame.
Research design and methods:
With global reported cases of poliomyelitis trending higher since 2016, we apply an integrated global model to simulate prospective vaccine policies and strategies for OPV-using countries starting with initial conditions that correspond to the epidemiological poliovirus transmission situation at the beginning of 2022.
Results:
Abruptly ending all OPV use in 2023 and relying only on IPV to prevent paralysis with current routine immunization coverage would lead to expected reestablished endemic transmission of poliovirus types 1 and 2, and approximately 150,000 expected cases of poliomyelitis per year. Alternatively, if OPV-using countries restart trivalent OPV (tOPV) use for all immunization activities and end IPV use, the model shows the lowest anticipated annual polio cases and lowest costs.
Conclusions:
Poor global risk management and coordination of OPV cessation remain a critical failure mode for the polio endgame, and national and global decision makers face difficult choices due to multiple available polio vaccine options and immunization strategies.
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Pubmed ID:36154436
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC10116513
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Funding:
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Volume:21
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Issue:11
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