Health economic analysis of vaccine options for the polio eradication endgame: 2022–2036

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Expert Rev Vaccines
• Personal Author:
  Thompson, Kimberly M. ; Kalkowska, Dominika A. ; Badizadegan, Kamran
• Description:
  Background:
  
  Multiple vaccine options are available for polio prevention and risk management. Integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling provides a tool to explore the dynamics of ending all use of one or more poliovirus vaccines to simplify the polio eradication endgame.
  
  Research design and methods:
  
  With global reported cases of poliomyelitis trending higher since 2016, we apply an integrated global model to simulate prospective vaccine policies and strategies for OPV-using countries starting with initial conditions that correspond to the epidemiological poliovirus transmission situation at the beginning of 2022.
  
  Results:
  
  Abruptly ending all OPV use in 2023 and relying only on IPV to prevent paralysis with current routine immunization coverage would lead to expected reestablished endemic transmission of poliovirus types 1 and 2, and approximately 150,000 expected cases of poliomyelitis per year. Alternatively, if OPV-using countries restart trivalent OPV (tOPV) use for all immunization activities and end IPV use, the model shows the lowest anticipated annual polio cases and lowest costs.
  
  Conclusions:
  
  Poor global risk management and coordination of OPV cessation remain a critical failure mode for the polio endgame, and national and global decision makers face difficult choices due to multiple available polio vaccine options and immunization strategies.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Disease Eradication Global Health Humans Poliomyelitis Poliovirus Poliovirus Vaccine, Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral
• Keywords:
  Dynamic Modeling Eradication Health Economic Analysis Interdependent Risks Polio Poliovirus Vaccine
• Source:
  Expert Rev Vaccines. 21(11):1667-1674
• Pubmed ID:
  36154436
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC10116513
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  NU2RGH001915/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHSUnited States/ ; NU2RGH001915/AA/NIAAA NIH HHSUnited States/
• Volume:
  21
• Issue:
  11
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:b77b3bb252f98c51aa871993c6acf6c64ab74ead31c3f7a4096310c55b881eb2d979fa2b83b862e0d7eaa5bdfeae75a95389105c4da7a86a1589d2d7408da429
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/127456/cdc_127456_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 363.52 KB ]