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Forecasts of flu hospitalizations
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February 22, 2023
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Description:Updated February 22, 2023
Reported and forecasted new influenza hospitalizations as of February 21, 2023.
Interpretation of National Forecasts of New Hospitalizations
• This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions will remain stable or have an uncertain trend nationally, with 240 to 3,400 new confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending March 4, 2023.
• This week, 18 modeling groups contributed 19 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
• Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
• The figure shows the number of new confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through February 18 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week over the next 2 weeks, through March 4. Hospitals are required to report laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect daily. See COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs [669 KB, 52 pages] for additional details on this guidance.
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