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Forecasts of flu hospitalizations
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February 2, 2023
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Description:Updated February 2, 2023
Reported and forecasted new influenza hospitalizations as of January 31, 2023.
• This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions will likely decrease nationally, with 310 to 4,800 new confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending February 11, 2023.
• This week, 20 modeling groups contributed 23 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
• Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
• The figure shows the number of new confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through January 28 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week over the next 2 weeks, through February 11. Hospitals are required to report laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect daily. See COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs [669 KB, 52 pages] is available for additional details on this guidance.
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