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COVID-19 forecasts : deaths : Updated Feb. 2, 2023
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Feb. 2, 2023
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Description:Reported and forecasted new and total COVID-19 deaths as of January 30, 2023.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
• This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 1,000 to 4,100 new deaths likely reported in the week ending February 25, 2023. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 1,115,000 to 1,124,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
• The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely decrease in 8 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
• Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. While they have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, even the ensemble forecasts have not reliably predicted rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.
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Content Notes:National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Forecast Assumptions.
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