COVID-19 forecasts : hospitalizations : updated Jan. 12, 2023
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COVID-19 forecasts : hospitalizations : updated Jan. 12, 2023

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    Updated Jan. 19, 2023

    Reported and forecasted new and total COVID-19 deaths as of January 16, 2023

    Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations

    - This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of new daily confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions will remain stable or have an uncertain trend, with 1,400 to 10,800 new confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions likely reported on February 10, 2023.

    - The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions will likely decrease in 5 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported hospital admissions are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

    - Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. While they have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, even the ensemble forecasts have not reliably predicted rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.

  • Content Notes:
    Summary: U.S. Case Data -- Epidemiological Parameters -- Response Investigations -- Priority Research Questions -- Partnerships -- Limitations of the Report -- Sources and Acknowledgements -- Other Resources.
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