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Forecasts of flu hospitalizations
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January 11, 2023
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Description:Updated January 11, 2023
Reported and forecasted new influenza hospitalizations as of January 9, 2023.
Interpretation of National Forecasts of New Hospitalizations
- This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions will remain stable or have an uncertain trend nationally, with 5,600 to 17,000 new confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending January 21, 2023.
- This week, 19 modeling groups contributed 22 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
- Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
- The figure shows the number of new confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through January 7 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week over the next 2 weeks, through January 21. Hospitals are required to report laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect daily. See COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs for additional details on this guidance.
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